Australia enters 2026 with a constructive backdrop for investors. Economic momentum has improved, while inflation dynamics remain central to market outcomes and interest rate expectations are once again in flux. Against this backdrop, opportunities are emerging across public and private markets, particularly for investors willing to be selective, active and forward-looking.
Our 2026 Australian Wealth Outlook explores how these forces are shaping returns and where investors may find the most compelling opportunities across key asset classes.
Inflation and interest rates will define returns
Inflation has proven more persistent than expected, both globally and in Australia. How inflation evolves will be critical for central bank policy, interest rate expectations and asset valuations, making flexibility and risk management essential for portfolios in 2026.
Economic growth remains resilient
Despite tighter financial conditions and policy uncertainty, Australia’s economy has shown renewed momentum, supported by rising real incomes, employment growth and solid private demand. Healthy nominal GDP growth provides a supportive backdrop for earnings across multiple asset classes, even as pockets of risk remain.
Volatility creates opportunity for active investors
Markets are likely to remain sensitive to shifts in policy expectations, inflation surprises and global developments. Periods of volatility may challenge passive approaches but can create attractive entry points for active investors able to rotate exposures and take advantage of mispricing across markets.
Equities
Balancing resilience, commodities and the next phase of AI
The outlook for equities remains broadly supportive, though dispersion is increasing as inflation, commodity trends and the evolution of AI reshape equity market leadership. We continue to favour quality businesses with pricing power, robust balance sheets and durable earnings. For Australian equities, careful management of commodity-linked exposures will be critical, while the next phase of the AI theme may extend beyond AI technology providers to companies successfully deploying AI to enhance productivity and margins.
Infrastructure
Resilient income and long-term growth
Infrastructure continues to offer a compelling combination of stable income, inflation protection and long-term growth. Valuations have reset closer to long-run averages, while structural tailwinds support predictable cashflows. As markets remain uncertain, infrastructure can play a stabilising role in diversified portfolios, particularly when accessed through a selective, actively managed approach focused on asset quality and structural growth alignment.
Liquid Credit
The active path to opportunity
Fixed income prospects for 2026 appear constructive, supported by attractive starting yields and the potential for easing rate expectations globally as inflation pressures fade. At the same time, rising fiscal pressures and policy uncertainty are likely to keep bond markets volatile. We see value in active duration management, selective credit exposure and tactical allocation across curves and regions, with volatility creating opportunities to add value during periods of market stress.
In 2026, we expect a supportive backdrop for asset prices and returns, underpinned by resilient consumer spending in developed markets and accelerating investment in AI. Our long-term conviction remains anchored in four core themes: demographics, deglobalisation, digitalisation and decarbonisation. As the macro landscape continues to evolve, local expertise and on-the-ground insights are more critical than ever for translating these themes into successful investment outcomes.”
Ben Way
Group Head, Macquarie Asset Management
Daniel McCormack
Head of Research
David Roberts
Head of Real Estate Strategy
Aizhan Meldebek
Global Infrastructure Strategist
Shamus McCully
Investment Specialist, Systematic Investments
Benjamin Leung
Head of Systematic Investments
John Horner
Global Liquid Credit Strategist
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