Outlook | Macquarie Asset Management

We expect 2026 to be another constructive year for investors. Despite heightened trade tensions, shifting supply chains and challenging fiscal backdrops, global growth remains resilient while AI is starting to reshape productivity and capital flows. In our 2026 investment outlook, we explore what this means for portfolios across private markets and listed debt.

From the impact of sharply higher US tariffs to the evolving role of AI and a renewed focus on fiscal sustainability, we examine the forces likely to define returns in the year ahead and where investors may find the most compelling opportunities.

Global macroeconomic outlook

The world economy has absorbed a series of shocks, from inflation and rapid rate rises, to trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. Yet growth has proven remarkably resilient. For 2026, we expect this resilience to continue.

Deglobalisation and tariffs

The sharp step-up in US tariffs represents the largest trade policy shift in decades, reinforcing what is already a multi-year deglobalisation trend. Supply chains are becoming more regional, cost bases are shifting, and the strategic competition between major economies is influencing everything from sector profitability to the geography of manufacturing.

While this transition introduces frictions, it also creates openings for countries and sectors positioned to benefit from nearshoring, trade redirection and strategic investment in capacity and resilience.

Artificial intelligence (AI)

AI is emerging as a key driver of investment, and adoption is accelerating across industries but measured productivity gains are modest so far. This opens the possibility we are at the peak of a “hype cycle” where expectations run ahead of realised benefits before longer-term gains materialise.

Nevertheless, the direction of travel is clear: AI will increasingly influence labour markets, capital allocation, profitability and national industrial strategies, with 2026 likely to mark a year of transition from experimentation to more widespread implementation.

Fiscal sustainability

Fiscal policy is becoming the key macro constraint. High debt levels, elevated deficits, ageing populations, and increased defence and climate-related spending needs are narrowing the room for manoeuvre. Markets are paying closer attention to fiscal credibility, and “bond vigilantes” are beginning to re-emerge.

As interest costs rise and issuance increases, fiscal choices will directly influence bond markets, currency dynamics and risk sentiment, making fiscal trajectories as important as central bank policy for investors in 2026.

asset

Asset class perspectives

Against this macro backdrop, we see a broad opportunity set across listed and private markets. But not all assets are equally positioned: valuations, earnings drivers and structural tailwinds vary significantly by sector and geography.

Infrastructure

Earnings growth underpinned by structural trends

Private infrastructure has continued to deliver robust returns, with its recent performance reinforcing the asset class’s resilience through periods of market volatility. Valuation multiples have retraced from their peaks and now sit close to long-run averages, while earnings growth remains supported by healthy nominal GDP growth and powerful secular themes.

Explore our infrastructure outlook

Real estate

Valuations reset, fundamentals improving

Global commercial property markets have undergone a substantial repricing, with yields adjusting to higher interest rates and risk premia. Development activity has been curtailed by elevated construction and financing costs, setting the stage for supply shortages in selected sectors over the coming decade.

Explore our real estate outlook

Liquid credit

Compelling yields with selective opportunities

Liquid credit markets remain supported by solid fundamentals, attractive all-in yields and contained default risks. While spreads are tight, dispersion across issuers is increasing, creating opportunities for investors able to identify resilient balance sheets and stable cashflows.

Explore our liquid credit outlook

Private credit

Attractive income and a broadening opportunity set

Private credit continues to grow as bank lending retrenches, with healthy deal flow across direct lending, asset-backed finance and infrastructure-related credit. Strong collateral frameworks and predictable cashflows support the asset class’s risk-adjusted return profile.

Explore our private credit outlook

Key themes from the outlook

A resilient global economy despite major shocks

Despite inflation shocks, rapid rate tightening, geopolitical uncertainty and a sharp increase in tariffs, the global economy has remained surprisingly resilient. While a traditional 60/40 portfolio has delivered strong returns in recent years, a portfolio with a 30% allocation to private markets has demonstrated greater resilience over the long term. Its higher risk-adjusted performance and smaller drawdowns during periods of market stress highlight the benefits of deeper diversification.

The classic 60/40 portfolio has delivered 8.6% so far in 2025

Sources: Macrobond, www.shillerdata.com (November 2025), Cambridge Associates Infrastructure Index; Cliffwater Direct Lending Index; Cambridge Associates US Private Equity Index; INREV Global Real Estate Fund Index (GREFI). Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

A historic shift in global trade policy

US tariff increases in 2025 marked the largest step-up in trade barriers in nearly a century. This shift reinforces the broader trend toward deglobalisation and has meaningful implications for supply chains, production costs and global competitiveness. While the adjustment is likely to create near-term friction, it also opens opportunities for countries and sectors positioned to benefit from redirected trade flows and regional investment.

US tariffs – announced level of US tariffs relative to history

Sources: Tax Foundation, Macrobond, Yale Budget Lab (November 2025).

Rising constraints on government budgets

Fiscal policy is becoming a major macro constraint as ageing populations, higher defence spending and rising interest costs place pressure on government budgets. With fiscal positions already stretched, many economies face limited room to respond to future shocks. This tightening backdrop increases the sensitivity of bond markets to fiscal credibility and is likely to drive greater yield dispersion in 2026 and beyond.

G7 budget balance

G7 government debt

Sources: IMF, Macrobond (November 2025).

Message to investors

In 2026, we expect a supportive backdrop for asset prices and returns, underpinned by resilient consumer spending in developed markets and accelerating investment in AI. Our long-term conviction remains anchored in four core themes: demographics, deglobalisation, digitalisation and decarbonisation. As the macro landscape continues to evolve, local expertise and on-the-ground insights are more critical than ever for translating these themes into successful investment outcomes.”

Ben Way
Group Head, Macquarie Asset Management

Read the letter to investors (PDF)

Contributors

Daniel McCormack
Head of Research

David Roberts
Head of Real Estate Strategy

Aizhan Meldebek
Global Infrastructure Strategist

James Lumb
Global Private Credit Strategist

John Horner
Global Liquid Credit Strategist 

Audrey Lee
Research Analyst

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