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Outlook 2026

Infrastructure

Perspectives

Constructive outlook driven by earnings growth

As the global economy continues to navigate the disruptive impacts of US trade policy, AI, and finely balanced fiscal positions in many of the world’s largest economies, private infrastructure has demonstrated resilience, delivering a robust 10.5% year-over-year return as of 2Q25, higher than the historical average of 9.5%.1 With fundraising and deal activity rebounding firmly, 2025 has proven to be a strong year for the asset class, and we expect this momentum to continue into 2026. 

The latest valuation multiples remain below historical peaks and show an attractive entry point to the asset class, particularly relative to listed equities. With earnings growth supported by structural forces such as digitalisation and electrification, the outlook for private infrastructure returns over the next 12 months remains constructive. Our modelling2 indicates an annual net return of around 10% for the asset class in 2026 and a projected annualised long-term return of 9.4% over the next decade (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Private infrastructure annual historical net returns and outlook for returns

Sources: Cambridge Associates (June 2025), Macquarie Asset Management (October 2025). Past performance is not indicative of future results.


Infrastructure valuations: Attractive relative to their own history and in relative terms

Figure 2 shows the 12-month moving average of entry EV/EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) transaction multiples for private infrastructure deals. After peaking in 2022 at an average of 16x EV/EBITDA, multiples found a floor in August 2024. Since then, they fluctuated but remained around 14x, only slightly above the historical average of 13.5x.3 In other words, the current level of multiples signals an attractive entry point to the asset class relative to its own history. 

In relative terms, the latest data show that private infrastructure multiples are at a level below US listed equities and on par with global equities (Figure 3). These spreads, which have historically been observed only twice previously – during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic – suggest that private infrastructure represents good value compared to listed equities.

Figure 2: Private infrastructure EV/EBITDA transaction multiples

Figure 3: Private infrastructure valuation multiples relative to listed equities

Sources: Macquarie Asset Management, Bloomberg (October 2025). Private infrastructure time series is based on 1,222 transaction multiples from January 2008 to June 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For illustrative purposes only.


Long-run return outlook: Earnings growth holds the key to return delivery

In our recent Pathways paper, “Private infrastructure performance: Uncovering the source of returns”, we provided a detailed breakdown of historical returns and the outlook for returns over the next 10 years. Our modelling of long-term private infrastructure returns across three distinct macroeconomic scenarios – “Moderate growth”, “Stagflation”, and “Return to Goldilocks” – suggests that net returns could be in the range of 8.3% to 11.0% over the next decade, with 9.4% the median expectation (Figure 4). While multiple expansion may play a supportive role over the short term, we don’t see it as a primary driver of returns in the long run. Instead, we expect earnings growth, supported by exposure to powerful structural drivers such as electrification and digitalisation, alongside operational improvements, to play the paramount role in return delivery over the coming decade.

Figure 4: 10-year outlook for private infrastructure net returns 

Source: Macquarie Asset Management (June 2025). Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Does not constitute investment advice or recommendation. For illustrative purposes only.


Sector views: Opportunity set defined by structural trends 

In digital infrastructure, we continue to see strong activity over the coming years, fuelled by the rapid growth of cloud computing and AI workloads. In the data centre sector, existing platforms are benefitting from strengthening pricing power, as demand continues to outstrip supply, with vacancy rates falling to a record-low 1.6% in the US.4 As established Tier 1 markets become power-constrained, we see opportunities to shift to new markets with faster power access. While data centres are at the forefront of the AI-driven expansion, the need for enhanced fibre connectivity and greater bandwidth between data centres is also accelerating demand for fibre network buildouts. For example, to enable the estimated increase in the number of data centres, the US will need to double its fibre infrastructure by 2029.5

With digitalisation and electrification accelerating, global power demand is forecast to increase by 3.7% in 2026, up from an estimated 3.3% in 2025.6 This will, in turn, drive demand for more solar and wind generation, as they now deliver power at a lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than many fossil fuels: the LCOE of fixed-axis solar photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind are now $US35 and $US37, respectively, roughly half the cost of CCGT ($US84) and coal ($US72).7 As more intermittent power sources are added to the grid, and thermal generation assets are retired, demand for battery storage is also likely to accelerate. 

The utilities sector might be entering a capex super-cycle, as increased power demand and generation necessitate an increase in transmission and distribution capacity, with regulated utilities playing a fundamental role in delivering power to end users. In the US, for example, utility investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure is increasing rapidly, with combined capex up 14% from last year.8 In Europe, regulated networks are ramping up grid investments, with an expected regulated asset base (RAB) growth of 8-10% in 2026.9 As RAB is the primary driver of earnings growth, we have a positive outlook for the sector over the coming years. At the same time, EU and UK regulators are adopting a constructive approach to new investments through innovative infrastructure planning, accelerated permitting, and enhanced remuneration frameworks.10

Within the transport sector, airport M&A activity has accelerated, reflecting the industry’s recovery beyond pre-pandemic activity levels and increased visibility into future traffic growth. Global air passenger traffic is projected to rise by 5.8% in 2025,11 with a CAGR of 3.3–4.3% over the next 20 years providing tailwinds for the sector. Beyond passenger growth, we favour airports with strong potential in commercial and retail segments, as these revenue streams can further enhance earnings growth. In ports, the risks are higher due to the exposure to trade volatility. Global trade volumes grew by 4.9% year over year in 1H25 due to the frontloading of imports in North America in anticipation of higher tariffs. With higher tariffs now in place, global trade volume growth is expected to slow to just 0.5% in 2026.12 While global growth is still expected to be healthy, the risks for ports are higher due to the tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.

Contributors

Aizhan Meldebek
Global Infrastructure Strategist 

  1. Based on Cambridge Associates Private Infrastructure Index (2Q25). The long-term average is calculated over the period between 4Q03 and 2Q25.
  2. See our Pathways paper, “Private infrastructure performance: Uncovering the source of returns” (September 2025).
  3. Based on MAM proprietary database of 1,222 EV/EBITDA transaction multiples between January 2008 and June 2025.
  4. CBRE, North America Data Centre Trends H1 2025.
  5. Fiber Broadband Association, “The Underappreciated Need to Enable AI and Data Center Growth: Increased and More Strategic Fiber Interconnections” (June 2025).
  6. International Energy Agency (IEA), “Demand: Global electricity use to grow strongly in 2025 and 2026” (July 2025).
  7. BNEF, “2025 LCOE: Data Viewer Tool” (February 2025).
  8. S&P Global, “Grid congestion remains key issue as data centre load growth stresses system” (October 2025).
  9. Bloomberg forecast, based on an average annual rate of 8-10% between 2024 and 2027.
  10. Fitch Ratings, “Energy Transition Drives Ratings of European Electricity Networks” (October 2025).
  11. International Air Transport Association (IATA), Global Outlook for Air Transport (June 2025).
  12. World Trade Organization (WTO), “World Trade Outlook and Statistics” (October 2025).

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Investment strategies that hold securities issued by companies principally engaged in the infrastructure industry have greater exposure to the potential adverse economic, regulatory, political, and other changes affecting such entities. 

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