Pathways

Private infrastructure valuations

Download the PDF

Over the long run, private infrastructure has delivered strong risk-adjusted returns. In the current macroeconomic environment, value creation and return delivery may depend more on revenue growth and operational improvements than on multiple expansion.

Figure 1: Unlisted infrastructure valuations compared to listed equities
 

Sources: Bloomberg, Macquarie Asset Management (December 2025). Private infrastructure series is based on 1,222 data transaction multiples for deals that reached financial close between January 2008 and June 2025. Notes: 12mma= 12-months moving average. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For illustrative purpose only.

 

Since 2004, private infrastructure has delivered an annualised return of 9.8%, landing slightly below US equities but above global equities. Private infrastructure valuations multiples have historically traded above listed equities. However, latest data shows that the spread with US equities has turned negative, suggesting an attractive entry point to the asset class.

  • The study relies on a robust database of 1,222 EV/EBITDA transaction multiples (2008–2025), primarily focusing on brownfield assets with regulated or contracted cash flows.
  • The dataset is diversified by sector (transport, utilities, digital infrastructure, renewables, energy midstream, diversified infrastructure) and geography.
  • Our study finds that valuation multiples are positively influenced by inflation and negatively by interest rates.

A multivariate regression analysis of unlisted infrastructure valuation multiples against key macroeconomic variables—inflation, interest rates, and GDP growth— as shown in the table below, revealed the following.

Swipe for more
Macroeconomic variable CoefficientStandard errort-statsp-valueStatistical significance
Inflation0.3680.1272.9110.005***
Interest rates-0.2810.108-2.5960.012***
GDP growth0.0880.1250.7050.483Not significant


1. Inflation:
 The analysis suggests a positive relationship between inflation and infrastructure valuation multiples. When inflation rises, it can provide an uplift not only to current earnings, but also future cash flows due to higher inflation expectations.

2. Interest rates: The analysis found a statistically significant negative relationship between interest rates and infrastructure multiples.

3. GDP growth: Lastly, GDP growth had no statistically significant relationship with infrastructure valuations. 

Sector comparisons require a nuanced approach, as the absolute level of multiples across sectors is not directly comparable. Instead, each sector should be evaluated relative to its own historical average rather than compared with other sectors. Additionally, the diverse nature of the asset class means that capital expenditure (capex) intensity varies significantly between sectors.

Key observations include:

Figure 2: 12-months EV/EBITDA moving averages by sector
 

Sources: Bloomberg, Macquarie Asset Management (June 2025). Private infrastructure series is based on 1,222 data transaction multiples for deals that reached financial close between January 2008 and June 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For illustrative purpose only.

 

Transport: In 2025, transaction multiples in the transport sector have rebounded to pre-COVID lows, driven primarily by the full recovery of air traffic and renewed activity in the airports segment.

Utilities and Power: Multiples in the sector typically display lower volatility. Although there was a decline in 2023 and 2024, values have largely returned to the historical average in 2025.

Digital Infrastructure: Since 2013, the sector has experienced an upward trajectory in multiples, reflecting strong structural demand and increasing valuations.

Energy Infrastructure: Assets such as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals have seen a downward trend in multiples since 2018, but recently there has been a rebound from historical lows.

Diversified Infrastructure: Sectors like waste management facilities and hospitals have shown a steady trend in valuations. Relative to the historical average, the sector currently offers attractive entry EV/EBITDA multiples.

Active asset management, innovative business plans, and specialist industry and energy transition expertise will likely be critical to delivering target returns. In our view, the following strategic considerations will be increasingly important to return delivery:

  1. Focus on earnings growth: Generating value by driving revenue growth, optimising costs and improving margins will be crucial for value and may support valuations at exit.
  2. Prudent approach to leverage: Lessons learned from the GFC suggest that valuations of highly levered assets are at risk of falling during periods of banking distress. A prudent approach to leverage will be important over the coming years.
  3. Specialist expertise: The energy transition presents compelling growth opportunities for infrastructure investors. Those with the expertise and skills to execute on these opportunities will have an advantage in the years and decades ahead.
  4. Navigating regulation: Experience in complicated regulatory environments and the ability to manage stakeholders will be key to delivering sustainable growth and essential services to communities in a more volatile macroeconomic environment. 
  5. Active asset management: Active asset management should be crucial to delivering on growth. Deep expertise across established and emerging sectors and technologies will likely be increasingly important.

Subscribe now to receive updates on our new editions.

The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) are as of the date indicated and may change based on market and other conditions. The accuracy of the content and its relevance to your client’s particular circumstances is not guaranteed. 

This market commentary has been prepared for general informational purposes by the team, who are part of Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), the asset management business of Macquarie Group (Macquarie), and is not a product of the Macquarie Research Department. This market commentary reflects the views of the team and statements in it may differ from the views of others in MAM or of other Macquarie divisions or groups, including Macquarie Research. This market commentary has not been prepared to comply with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is accordingly not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. 

Nothing in this market commentary shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or other product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. Macquarie conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, asset management, and brokerage business. Macquarie may do, and seek to do, business with any of the companies covered in this market commentary. Macquarie has investment banking and other business relationships with a significant number of companies, which may include companies that are discussed in this commentary, and may have positions in financial instruments or other financial interests in the subject matter of this market commentary. As a result, investors should be aware that Macquarie may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this market commentary. In preparing this market commentary, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular client. You should not make an investment decision on the basis of this market commentary. Before making an investment decision you need to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the investment is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. 

Macquarie salespeople, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary, analysis, trading strategies or research products to Macquarie’s clients that reflect opinions which are different from or contrary to the opinions expressed in this market commentary. Macquarie’s asset management business (including MAM), principal trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the views expressed in this commentary. There are risks involved in investing. The price of securities and other financial products can and does fluctuate and an individual security or financial product may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international or local financial, market, economic, tax or regulatory conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. This market commentary is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in this market commentary. Opinions, information, and data in this market commentary are as of the date indicated on the cover and subject to change without notice. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this market commentary and/or further communication in relation to this market commentary. Some of the data in this market commentary may be sourced from information and materials published by government or industry bodies or agencies, however this market commentary is neither endorsed nor certified by any such bodies or agencies. This market commentary does not constitute legal, tax accounting or investment advice. Recipients should independently evaluate any specific investment in consultation with their legal, tax, accounting, and investment advisors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

This market commentary may include forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, opinions and investment theses, which may be identified by the use of terminology such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intend”, “may”, “can”, “plan”, “will”, “would”, “should”, “seek”, “project”, “continue”, “target” and similar expressions. No representation is made or will be made that any forward-looking statements will be achieved or will prove to be correct or that any assumptions on which such statements may be based are reasonable. A number of factors could cause actual future results and operations to vary materially and adversely from the forward-looking statements. Qualitative statements regarding political, regulatory, market and economic environments and opportunities are based on the team’s opinion, belief and judgment. 

Other than Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (“Macquarie Bank”), any Macquarie Group entity noted in this document is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia). The obligations of these other Macquarie Group entities do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank. Macquarie Bank does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of these other Macquarie Group entities. In addition, if this document relates to an investment, (a) the investor is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested and (b) none of Macquarie Bank or any other Macquarie Group entity guarantees any particular rate of return on or the performance of the investment, nor do they guarantee repayment of capital in respect of the investment. 

Past performance does not guarantee future results. 

Diversification may not protect against market risk. 

Market risk is the risk that all or a majority of the securities in a certain market – like the stock market or bond market – will decline in value because of factors such as adverse political or economic conditions, future expectations, investor confidence, or heavy institutional selling.

 International investments entail risks including fluctuation in currency values, differences in accounting principles, or economic or political instability. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in established foreign markets due to increased volatility, lower trading volume, and higher risk of market closures. In many emerging markets, there is substantially less publicly available information and the available information may be incomplete or misleading. Legal claims are generally more difficult to pursue. 

Currency risk is the risk that fluctuations in exchange rates between the US dollar and foreign currencies and between various foreign currencies may cause the value of an investment to decline. The market for some (or all) currencies may from time to time have low trading volume and become illiquid, which may prevent an investment from effecting positions or from promptly liquidating unfavourable positions in such markets, thus subjecting the investment to substantial losses. 

Infrastructure companies may be subject to a variety of factors that may adversely affect their business or operations, including high interest costs, high leverage, economic slowdowns, surplus capacity, increased competition, commodity prices, regulatory and political developments, difficulty raising capital, and terrorist acts or political actions, and general changes in market sentiment. 

The global financial crisis (GFC) refers to the period of extreme stress in global financial markets and banking systems between mid-2007 and early 2009. 

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling. Central banks attempt to stop severe inflation, along with severe deflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive growth of prices to a minimum. 

Stagflation occurs when persistent high inflation is combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country’s economy. 

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return Index measures the performance of global investment grade fixed income securities. This index is widely used as a benchmark for fixed income securities. 

The Cambridge Associates Infrastructure Index represents a horizon calculation based on data compiled from 232 infrastructure funds, including fully liquidated partnerships, formed between 1994 and 2024. The Developed Markets sub-index comprises 199 funds; the Emerging Markets sub-index comprises 27 funds. 

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. 

The INREV Global Real Estate Fund Index (GREFI) measures net asset value weighted performance of non-listed real estate funds on a quarterly basis. 

The MSCI World Index represents large- and mid-cap stocks across 23 developed market countries worldwide. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. 

The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of 500 mostly large-cap stocks weighted by market value and is often used to represent performance of the US stock market. 

The S&P 500 Utilities Index measures the performance of companies within the S&P 500 Index that are categorized as members of the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) utilities sector. 

The S&P Global Infrastructure Index is composed of 75 of the largest publicly listed companies in the global infrastructure industry. The index has balanced weights across three distinct infrastructure clusters: energy, transportation, and utilities. The “net total return” index reinvests regular cash dividends after the deduction of applicable withholding taxes.

Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. 

Macquarie Group, its employees and officers may act in different, potentially conflicting, roles in providing the financial services referred to in this document. The Macquarie Group entities may from time to time act as trustee, administrator, registrar, custodian, investment manager or investment advisor, representative or otherwise for a product or may be otherwise involved in or with, other products and clients which have similar investment objectives to those of the products described herein. Due to the conflicting nature of these roles, the interests of Macquarie Group may from time to time be inconsistent with the Interests of investors. Macquarie Group entities may receive remuneration as a result of acting in these roles. Macquarie Group has conflict of interest policies which aim to manage conflicts of interest.

All third-party marks cited are the property of their respective owners.

© 2025 Macquarie Group Limited

Macquarie Asset management is a leading global asset manager offering a diverse range of investment solutions, including real assets, real estate, and credit.

 

This information is a general description of Macquarie Asset management only. The views expressed in this website represent those of the relevant investment team and are subject to change. No information set out above constitutes advice, an advertisement, an invitation, a confirmation, an offer or a solicitation, to buy or sell any security or other financial product or to engage in any investment activity, or an offer of any banking or financial service. Some products and/or services mentioned on this website may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.

 

Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal. The investment capabilities described in this website involve risks due, among other things, to the nature of the underlying investments. All examples herein are for illustrative purposes only and there can be no assurance that any particular investment objective will be realized or any investment strategy seeking to achieve such objective will be successful. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance.

 

Before acting on any information, you should consider the appropriateness of it having regard to your particular objectives, financial situation and needs and seek advice.

 

Other than Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (“Macquarie Bank”), any Macquarie Group entity noted in this website is not an authorized deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia).  The obligations of these other Macquarie Group entities do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank.  Macquarie Bank does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of these other Macquarie Group entities.  In addition, if this website relates to an investment, (a) the investor is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested and (b) none of Macquarie Bank or any other Macquarie Group entity guarantees any particular rate of return on or the performance of the investment, nor do they guarantee repayment of capital in respect of the investment.

 

Additional important information (including regional disclosures)

 

[3246420]