Portfolio and risk metrics

Efficient frontier: The set of portfolios offering the highest expected return for a given level of risk, or the lowest expected risk for a given level of return.

Volatility: A measure of how much an asset’s returns fluctuate over time. Higher volatility indicates greater variability in returns.

Correlation: A measure of how closely the returns of two assets move together. Lower correlation between assets can contribute to portfolio diversification.

Drawdown: The decline in an investment’s value from a previous peak to a subsequent low, used to assess the severity of losses during periods of market stress.

Standard deviation: A statistical measure of the variation in returns, commonly used to quantify volatility.

Macroeconomic terms

GDP: Gross Domestic Product. The total value of goods and services produced within a country.

CPI: Consumer Price Index. A measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, commonly used as a measure of inflation.

Deglobalisation: A shift towards less globally integrated trade and production, often reflected in more regionalised supply chains and a greater focus on domestic resilience.

Financial and valuation metrics

EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation. A common measure of operating profitability.

EV/EBITDA: Enterprise value, or EV, measures a company’s total value and, when compared with its EBITDA, shows whether the company is overvalued or undervalued.

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate. The constant annual rate at which an investment or metric would have grown over a specified period, assuming compounding.

Unsmoothed returns: Returns are adjusted to remove the artificial calm from lagging appraisals so a private investment’s true volatility can be fairly compared with daily-priced assets.

Infrastructure-specific terms

Contracted or regulated revenues: Revenues governed by contractual agreements or regulatory frameworks, which can provide greater visibility over future cash flows.

Concession agreement: An agreement granting a private operator the right to develop, operate or maintain an infrastructure asset for a specified period, subject to defined terms and obligations.

Energy midstream: Infrastructure involved in the transportation, storage and processing of energy commodities between production and end-market distribution.

Private and listed infrastructure: Private infrastructure comprises unlisted assets typically held directly or through private funds. Listed infrastructure comprises publicly traded companies that own or operate infrastructure assets.

Indices referenced

Broad market indices

Cambridge Associates Infrastructure Index: Represents the performance of private infrastructure funds and is used as the private infrastructure return benchmark.

S&P 500 Index: Measures the performance of large-cap US equities and is used as the US equities comparator.

MSCI World Index: Captures large- and mid-cap equity performance across developed markets and is used as the global equities comparator.

Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index: Measures the performance of global investment-grade fixed-rate debt markets and is used as the global bonds comparator.

Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Total Return Index: Measures the total return performance of listed infrastructure companies globally and is used as the listed infrastructure comparator.

Credit and alternative indices

Bloomberg Global High Yield Corporate Index: Measures the performance of global below-investment-grade corporate bonds.

Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Index: Measures the performance of global investment-grade corporate bonds.

Cambridge Associates US Private Equity Index: Represents the performance of US private equity funds and is used as the private equity comparator.

Cambridge Associates Real Estate Index: Represents the performance of private real estate funds and is used as a private real estate comparator.

Cliffwater Direct Lending Index: Measures the performance of US middle-market direct lending and is used as the private credit comparator.

INREV Global Real Estate Fund Index (GREFI): Measures the performance of non-listed real estate funds globally and is used as the private real estate comparator.

Research methodology

Unsmoothed returns

Unsmoothed returns: Returns are adjusted to remove the artificial calm from lagging appraisals so a private investment’s true volatility can be fairly compared with daily-priced assets.

Private and listed equity valuation comparisons: Comparisons between private and listed equity valuations are subject to differences in valuation methodology, asset liquidity and risk profile.

Methodology pertaining to chapter 5

To ensure the time series is as accurate and representative as possible, we have used the following principles to build it:

Quality sources: We have used our trusted internal database of EV/EBITDA multiples and reliable external data sources, such as Inframation and Bloomberg.

Large sample size: Our database contains 1,054 data points for private infrastructure transactions that reached financial close between 2008 and 2022, inclusive.

Long history: Our time series covers a period of 15 years, including two recession periods, the GFC and COVID-19, and two recoveries.

Strict definition: The dataset primarily includes brownfield assets that are underpinned by regulated or contracted cash flows, with limited exposure to assets with significant merchant risk.

Diversification by sector: The dataset is well diversified by sector, including transport, utilities, digital infrastructure, renewables, energy midstream and diversified infrastructure.

Diversification by country: The dataset is also well diversified by country, with the largest exposures being to the US, UK, Spain, Italy, France and Australia.

Transparent approach: No adjustments have been applied to the reported multiples, except for the calculation of monthly, or quarterly where applicable, moving averages.

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