Perspectives
4 December 2025
In his end of year economic outlook, Ric Deverell, Macquarie's Chief Economist, suggests that, with the initial shock of the "Liberation Day" tariffs fading, macro policy turning more accommodative, and global industrial production recovering, global growth will speed up a bit next year.
That is likely to see equity prices move higher, commodity prices rally (albeit with considerable variance) and the US dollar continue to slide.
It also suggests that central bank easing is near an end, with the Federal Reserve likely to be hiking interest rates again in late 2026.
The impact of exuberant tech investment is probably the biggest known unknown for 2026. However, we suspect the likely bust is still some time away. On the upside, it is possible that the macro stimulus drives a stronger economic rebound than currently expected, and a concomitant surge in equity prices (it feels a bit like 1999).
The full report is available to clients on the Macquarie Insights portal.
Learn more
