This article was prepared by Macquarie's Commodities Strategists for LME Week 2019.
24 October 2019
Last year, we experienced numerous shocks to the supply of aluminium – mainly from Rusal’s sanctions and Alunorte’s forced closure. This has given way to 2019's more conventional price-driving themes. Relentless China-centric supply and capacity growth, deteriorating global demand growth and a collapse in the key input costs to alumina and power have characterised this year’s market.
As a result, aluminium's price has been fundamentally capped this year – a condition aided by the trade conflict that has impacted most industrial metals and the commodity trade at large.