Insights

Infrastructure: Resilient income and long-term growth

Infrastructure enters 2026 with a compelling combination of resilient income, inflation protection and long-term growth, supported by essential service demand and structural tailwinds.

Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, trade and fiscal policy volatility and disruption from technological change, private infrastructure has continued to deliver strong and consistent risk-adjusted returns. In the year to 3Q25 (the latest data available), infrastructure returned 8.6% year-on-year, broadly in line with its long-term average of 9.5%.1

Valuations have reset closer to long-run averages, while earnings growth remains closely linked to nominal GDP, creating a constructive backdrop for investors seeking diversification and portfolio resilience.

Three high-conviction views for the year ahead:

Over the long-term2, private infrastructure has delivered returns comparable to listed equities, but with significantly lower volatility. Historical data shows infrastructure volatility has been approximately half that of listed equities, reflecting the defensive characteristics of the asset class.

This resilience has been evident across multiple market cycles (see figure 1), supported by regulated or contracted revenues, the essential nature of the services infrastructure provides and high barriers to entry.

Forward-looking return expectations remain supportive. Based on current valuations and earnings assumptions, we expect infrastructure to deliver net returns (i.e. net of fees and carried interest) of around 10% over the next year, with long-term annualised returns of approximately 9-10% over the next decade.

 

What this means for investors

Infrastructure can help smooth portfolio outcomes by providing stable returns and lower drawdowns, while still offering equity-like long-term return potential.


Figure 1: Private infrastructure’s return delivery has been strong and very consistent through time

Chart takeaway

Infrastructure’s long-run risk-adjust return delivery has been very strong and remarkably consistent.

Sources: Cambridge Associates (June 2025), Macquarie Asset Management (October 2025). Past performance is not indicative of future results. 


Following a period of elevated valuation multiples, private infrastructure valuations have normalised and now sit close to long-run average levels.3

Importantly, infrastructure valuations now screen as attractive relative to listed equities (see figure 2), particularly in the US. Current relative valuation levels have only been observed a limited number of times historically – most notably during the 2008-09 financial crisis and the COVID-19 period – signalling a more compelling entry point into the asset class.

Looking ahead, valuation multiples could increase in 2026 as interest rates continue to ease and as the attractive long-term growth characteristics of infrastructure become increasingly recognised.

 

What this means for investors

More attractive valuations improve prospective returns and provide a margin of safety, particularly when combined with infrastructure’s stable cashflow profile. For investors with a long-term horizon, current valuation conditions appear supportive.


Figure 2: Private infrastructure is cheaper than US listed equities

Chart takeaway

Private infrastructure valuations are now attractive relative to their own history and relative to listed equities.

Sources:  Macquarie Asset Management, Bloomberg (October 2025). Private infrastructure time series is based on 1,222 transaction multiples from January 2008 to June 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For illustrative purposes only.


Infrastructure earnings growth has historically been closely correlated with nominal GDP, reflecting exposure to both real economic activity and inflation-linked revenues.

With nominal GDP growth across the US, Euro area and UK expected to remain above long-run averages, infrastructure earnings are supported by a favourable macro backdrop. The structural tailwinds from electrification, digitalisation and demographics provide further support to medium-term earnings growth.

Historical analysis shows infrastructure earnings growth has been strongest during periods of above-average nominal GDP growth, reinforcing the asset class’s ability to generate resilient and growing cashflows across economic environments.

 

What this means for investors

Strong earnings growth – both near and medium-term – should enhance infrastructure’s returns, providing investors with both income stability and healthy growth. 


Figure 3: GDP growth drives infrastructure earnings growth

Figure 4: Inflation also drives infrastructure earnings growth

Sources: Cambridge Associates (June 2025), Macquarie Asset Management (October 2025). Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chart takeaway

Infrastructure’s earnings growth is driven by nominal GDP growth.


Portfolio positioning: the role of infrastructure

Infrastructure can play a strategic role within diversified portfolios, offering exposure to assets with predictable cashflows and diversification characteristics, as well as structural growth trends.

Its defensive characteristics and historically lower correlation with traditional asset classes can help reduce overall portfolio volatility, while its income profile has supported long-term return outcomes across market cycles.

At the same time, dispersion across infrastructure subsectors and regions is increasing, creating a more differentiated opportunity set. This reinforces the importance of a selective approach focused on assets with strong fundamentals, appropriate valuation levels and exposure to long-term demand drivers.

Key opportunities

  • Digital infrastructure: Data centres and fibre networks are benefiting from accelerating demand linked to cloud computing and AI workloads.
  • Energy transition assets: Solar, wind and battery storage continue to gain share as costs decline and power demand rises.
  • Regulated utilities: Increased investment in electricity transmission and distribution supports predictable earnings growth under regulated frameworks.

Risks and areas to monitor

  • Higher-for-longer interest rates impacting valuations
  • Regulatory or political intervention affecting asset cashflows
  • Asset-specific execution, refinancing or operational risks

Infrastructure continues to offer a compelling blend of resilience, income and long-term growth. With valuations normalised and earnings growth supported by nominal GDP dynamics, the asset class remains well positioned to contribute to diversification and risk-adjusted returns through 2026 and beyond.

 

About Macquarie Asset Management

For over 30 years, we have been a recognised industry leader with a long-standing history in infrastructure investing. Relentlessly focused on investing to deliver superior results and positive impact for our clients, portfolio companies, communities and those whose savings we’re trusted to manage.

Contact us

Connect with our wealth team

Access high quality private markets investments through our leading global platform.

  1. Based on Cambridge Associates Private Infrastructure Index (Q2 2025). The long-term average is calculated over the period between 4Q03 and 2Q25.
  2. Since the start of 2004, which is when the Cambridge Associates private infrastructure returns index begins.
  3. EV/EBITDA is enterprise value (debt plus equity) divided by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation and is the main metric used to value infrastructure assets.

The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) are as of the date indicated and may change based on market and other conditions. The accuracy of the content and its relevance to your client’s particular circumstances is not guaranteed.

This market commentary has been prepared for general informational purposes by the team, who are part of Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), the asset management business of Macquarie Group (Macquarie), and is not a product of the Macquarie Research Department. This market commentary reflects the views of the team and statements in it may differ from the views of others in MAM or of other Macquarie divisions or groups, including Macquarie Research. This market commentary has not been prepared to comply with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is accordingly not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Nothing in this market commentary shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or other product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. Macquarie conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, asset management, and brokerage business. Macquarie may do, and seek to do, business with any of the companies covered in this market commentary. Macquarie has investment banking and other business relationships with a significant number of companies, which may include companies that are discussed in this commentary, and may have positions in financial instruments or other financial interests in the subject matter of this market commentary. As a result, investors should be aware that Macquarie may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this market commentary. In preparing this market commentary, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular client. You should not make an investment decision on the basis of this market commentary. Before making an investment decision you need to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the investment is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances.

Macquarie salespeople, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary, analysis, trading strategies or research products to Macquarie’s clients that reflect opinions which are different from or contrary to the opinions expressed in this market commentary. Macquarie’s asset management business (including MAM), principal trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the views expressed in this commentary. There are risks involved in investing. The price of securities and other financial products can and does fluctuate, and an individual security or financial product may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international or local financial, market, economic, tax or regulatory conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. This market commentary is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in this market commentary. Opinions, information, and data in this market commentary are as of the date indicated on the cover and subject to change without notice. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this market commentary and/or further communication in relation to this market commentary. Some of the data in this market commentary may be sourced from information and materials published by government or industry bodies or agencies, however this market commentary is neither endorsed or certified by any such bodies or agencies. This market commentary does not constitute legal, tax accounting or investment advice. Recipients should independently evaluate any specific investment in consultation with their legal, tax, accounting, and investment advisors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This market commentary may include forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, opinions and investment theses, which may be identified by the use of terminology such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intend”, “may”, “can”, “plan”, “will”, “would”, “should”, “seek”, “project”, “continue”, “target” and similar expressions. No representation is made or will be made that any forward-looking statements will be achieved or will prove to be correct or that any assumptions on which such statements may be based are reasonable. A number of factors could cause actual future results and operations to vary materially and adversely from the forward-looking statements. Qualitative statements regarding political, regulatory, market and economic environments and opportunities are based on the team’s opinion, belief and judgment.

Other than Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (“Macquarie Bank”), any Macquarie Group entity noted in this document is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia). The obligations of these other Macquarie Group entities do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank. Macquarie Bank does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of these other Macquarie Group entities. In addition, if this document relates to an investment, (a) the investor is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested and (b) none of Macquarie Bank or any other Macquarie Group entity guarantees any particular rate of return on or the performance of the investment, nor do they guarantee repayment of capital in respect of the investment.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Diversification may not protect against market risk.

Market risk is the risk that all or a majority of the securities in a certain market – like the stock market or bond market – will decline in value because of factors such as adverse political or economic conditions, future expectations, investor confidence, or heavy institutional selling.

International investments entail risks including fluctuation in currency values, differences in accounting principles, or economic or political instability. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in established foreign markets due to increased volatility, lower trading volume, and higher risk of market closures. In many emerging markets, there is substantially less publicly available information and the available information may be incomplete or misleading. Legal claims are generally more difficult to pursue.

Currency risk is the risk that fluctuations in exchange rates between the US dollar and foreign currencies and between various foreign currencies may cause the value of an investment to decline. The market for some (or all) currencies may from time to time have low trading volume and become illiquid, which may prevent an investment from effecting positions or from promptly liquidating unfavourable positions in such markets, thus subjecting the investment to substantial losses.

Credit risk is the risk of loss of principal or loss of a financial reward stemming from a borrower’s failure to repay a loan or otherwise meet a contractual obligation. Credit risk arises whenever a borrower expects to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. Investors are compensated for assuming credit risk by way of interest payments from the borrower or issuer of a debt obligation. Credit risk is closely tied to the potential return of an investment, the most notable being that the yields on bonds correlate strongly to their perceived credit risk.

Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses.

Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index.

Macquarie Group, its employees and officers may act in different, potentially conflicting, roles in providing the financial services referred to in this document. The Macquarie Group entities may from time to time act as trustee, administrator, registrar, custodian, investment manager or investment advisor, representative or otherwise for a product or may be otherwise involved in or with, other products and clients which have similar investment objectives to those of the products described herein. Due to the conflicting nature of these roles, the interests of Macquarie Group may from time to time be inconsistent with the Interests of investors. Macquarie Group entities may receive remuneration as a result of acting in these roles. Macquarie Group has conflict of interest policies which aim to manage conflicts of interest.

All third-party marks cited are the property of their respective owners.

© Macquarie Group Limited

Macquarie Asset management is a leading global asset manager offering a diverse range of investment solutions, including real assets, real estate, and credit.

 

This information is a general description of Macquarie Asset management only. The views expressed in this website represent those of the relevant investment team and are subject to change. No information set out above constitutes advice, an advertisement, an invitation, a confirmation, an offer or a solicitation, to buy or sell any security or other financial product or to engage in any investment activity, or an offer of any banking or financial service. Some products and/or services mentioned on this website may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.

 

Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal. The investment capabilities described in this website involve risks due, among other things, to the nature of the underlying investments. All examples herein are for illustrative purposes only and there can be no assurance that any particular investment objective will be realized or any investment strategy seeking to achieve such objective will be successful. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance.

 

Before acting on any information, you should consider the appropriateness of it having regard to your particular objectives, financial situation and needs and seek advice.

 

Other than Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (“Macquarie Bank”), any Macquarie Group entity noted in this website is not an authorized deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia).  The obligations of these other Macquarie Group entities do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank.  Macquarie Bank does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of these other Macquarie Group entities.  In addition, if this website relates to an investment, (a) the investor is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested and (b) none of Macquarie Bank or any other Macquarie Group entity guarantees any particular rate of return on or the performance of the investment, nor do they guarantee repayment of capital in respect of the investment.

 

Additional important information (including regional disclosures)

 

[3246420]

Macquarie Asset management is a leading global asset manager offering a diverse range of investment solutions, including real assets, real estate, and credit.

 

This information is a general description of Macquarie Asset management only. The views expressed in this website represent those of the relevant investment team and are subject to change. No information set out above constitutes advice, an advertisement, an invitation, a confirmation, an offer or a solicitation, to buy or sell any security or other financial product or to engage in any investment activity, or an offer of any banking or financial service. Some products and/or services mentioned on this website may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.

 

Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal. The investment capabilities described in this website involve risks due, among other things, to the nature of the underlying investments. All examples herein are for illustrative purposes only and there can be no assurance that any particular investment objective will be realized or any investment strategy seeking to achieve such objective will be successful. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance.

 

Before acting on any information, you should consider the appropriateness of it having regard to your particular objectives, financial situation and needs and seek advice.

 

Other than Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (“Macquarie Bank”), any Macquarie Group entity noted in this website is not an authorized deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia).  The obligations of these other Macquarie Group entities do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank.  Macquarie Bank does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of these other Macquarie Group entities.  In addition, if this website relates to an investment, (a) the investor is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested and (b) none of Macquarie Bank or any other Macquarie Group entity guarantees any particular rate of return on or the performance of the investment, nor do they guarantee repayment of capital in respect of the investment.

 

Additional important information (including regional disclosures)

 

[3246420]