India Equity Research
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Generation Z and Millennials account for over 50% of India's population and are set to enter their prime earning and spending years. We estimate India's consumer wallet to grow 2.4x by FY30, with share of discretionary rising towards 40%, which in-turn would imply a four-fold increase in lifestyle spends.
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Since 2015, the number of accounts under India’s flagship financial inclusion scheme has grown 3.5x to circa 440 million or one-third of India’s population. In this report, we focus on financial inclusion in India, which has been at the core of the government’s reform agenda. As India spreads the net of financial services deep, we see opportunities across credit, financial services distribution, and deposits.
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Digitisation is driving a diversification of India’s financial system. Newer avenues are seeing rapid growth yet remain under-penetrated. In this report, we focus on financialisation of savings and credit.
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In recent years, India’s imports were 50% higher than its exports. In this report, we frame the big picture impetus for Make in India and the related Production Linked Incentive schemes by drilling down on trends in India’s merchandise trade across categories and against Emerging Markets.
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India is set to contribute one-fourth of global energy demand growth over the next two decades. In this report, we focus on opportunities in India’s quest for more sustainable energy sources and a lower-carbon economy. We anticipate long-term opportunities in renewables, alternative fuels, and upgraded infrastructure.
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India’s government plans $US1.5 trillion national infrastructure spend from 2020 to 2025. In this report, we focus on trends and opportunities in upgrading traditional infrastructure – roads, railways, ports, aviation.
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Opportunities in agriculture and allied sectors account for over 40% of jobs and 17% of GDP in India and the country ranks second in the world on Gross Value Added by Agriculture and Allied sectors at $US480 billion, after China at $US1 trillion. Notwithstanding India’s recent backstep on farm reforms, we see opportunities in crop protection chemicals, irrigation, credit flow, exports.
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We focus on the compounding in India’s services trade and pivot beyond being a ‘BPO to the world’. India’s share of world services trade has scaled from 1% in 2000 to 3.5% today – a level that we see continuing to grow. In addition, we believe India IT services companies remain well positioned for structural market share gains in a $US1 trillion and rising opportunity.
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Digitisation, GST, manufacturing tax cut, import duties, Production Linked Incentive (PLI) continue to support new business registration momentum in India. In this report, we track new business registrations in India, perspective on formalisation of the economy, relative growth opportunities by sector and ease of doing business.
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The final report is a consolidation of our thematic work across: Digitisation, Consumption, Demographics, Financial Inclusion, Financialisation, Make in India, Manufacturing Renaissance, Services Trade, Building India, Energy Transition, and Formalisation.
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Aditya Suresh is Macquarie’s Head of India Research. Aditya has 16 years of equity research experience across multiple geographies. In his current role, in addition to leading an experienced analyst team, Aditya's research focus is on the megatrends shaping India, ESG, and equity strategy. Prior to Macquarie, Aditya was a member of the top-ranked European Energy team at Morgan Stanley. Aditya holds a Master of Finance degree from INSEAD, a Bachelor’s degree in Chemical Engineering, and a CFA charter.
Suresh Ganapathy, Head of Financials Research, India, brings over 15 years of experience of tracking the financial sector covering banks, NBFCs, brokerages, insurance companies etc. Suresh has been consistently rated as one of the top 3 financials analyst in India by various external surveys over the years.
Avi Mehta is a Senior Analyst and has been working at Macquarie since 2020. Prior to this, Avi was an analyst at India Infoline, a domestic brokerage firm, for almost 12 years covering sectors like consumer, consumer internet, logistics, midcaps, real estate and utilities. Avi has been awarded the No 2 stock picker in his space by Thomson Reuters in 2020/2019/2018 and was No 4 in the Asia Money 2019 poll. Avi holds an MBA from IIM Calcutta and a Bachelor of Technology in Computer Science from VJTI, Mumbai. He became a CFA charter holder in 2019.
Ashish has joined Macquarie in Mumbai as Senior Research Analyst covering Indian Materials. He has more than 16 years experience, including 13 years at Morgan Stanley India where most recently, he covered Indian Cement and Metals stocks. Prior to this, Ashish worked with Moody's associate, ICRA India, and GE India. Ashish holds a Post Graduate Diploma in Management and is also a Chartered Accountant.
